Sources: World Development Report 1992; Country Studies. TABLE 11.9 Land Use in SAARC Countries (mha) Sources: Country Studies; SAARC 1992. Asian region has no inherent soil constraints, being more shallow, and having more drainage and tillage problems than soils of other regions. About 15 per cent of the land area in Sri Lanka, 24 per cent in Pakistan, and 27 per cent in India is estimated to be affected by salinization. Bangladesh is known to be suffering from saline water intrusion as far as 150 km inland owing to reduced water flows in the lower Ganges river.' Other than salinity, major land degradation problems in South Asia include soil erosion, soil acidity and waterlogging in Bangladesh, soil and river bank erosion in Bhutan, soil erosion, waterlogging, chemical degradation due to the use of pesticides, loss of land due to mining in India, salinity and coastal erosion in Maldives, waterlogging and degradation due to quarrying in Nepal, waterlogging and soil erosion in Pakistan, and waterlogging, soil erosion, chemical degradation due to pesticides, and degradation due to mining in Sri Lankan 9 ADB, Asian Development Outlook 1991, 1991, p. 219. 10 SAARC 1992, Regional Study on the Causes and Consequences of Natural Disasters and the Protection and Preservation of the Environment, SAARC Secretariat, Kathmandu, 1992, Table 3.3, p. 36. 111327 Large and growing populations also imply that there is a physical limit to per capita cropland availability which is already low as seen in the table below. TABLE 11.10 Cropland in South Asia Sources: Country Studies; SAARC 1992, Tables 3.1 and 3.2; World Development Report 1990/91, Table 18.2. Jodha (1988) points to some special features of the agricultural sector in such developing regions which differentiate it from that of the developed world and makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts." Since agriculture in these economies is still the dominant sector, climate change affecting its resource base and impacting on its yield, will immediately have implications for the economic and social structure of the national economy. This is especially so because: (i) The bulk of production activities in the agricultural sector are still dependent on rainfall and runoff. The relationship between rainfall and agriculture is particularly important in the semi-arid tropics, where the cycle of rainfall determines the length of the growing season. Thus, initial planting depends on the first rains, and a delay can cause significant changes in the yields at the end of the season. In such areas small changes in the timing and the amount of rainfall can affect yields. Rainfall is also an important constraint on agriculture in the humid tropics, in which rice is the main crop. Variations in rainfall are known to affect the rice crop in Myanmar, India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. (ii) These economies do not have the institutional, technical and the social support systems to cushion shocks generated by these natural crises, and so have a limited ability to spread risk through backward and forward linkages of agriculture. 11 N.S. Jodha, 'Potential Strategies for Adapting to Green House Warming: Perspectives from the Developing World'. Paper presented at the RFF Workshop, Washington D.C., 1988, p. 3. 112328 (iii) There is already a vulnerable sector in terms of the small and marginal farmers who are operating at subsistence levels on marginal and unproductive land. The impact of climate change on this group of people will be particularly acute, since their land is already unfavourable in terms of its productivity, and they lack the technological and institutional protection against risk. There are three types of agricultural practices in South Asia that are considered vulnerable to climate variations: 1. The practice of shifting cultivation which causes the fallow cycle to be shortened, leading to a deterioration in soil quality. 2. Continuous cropping of maize, sorghum, beans, upland rice, etc. 3. Cultivation of food crops for exports mostly in upland areas that are considered marginal and subject to soil deterioration.12 Climate change with its associated impact of altered precipitation rates will tend to increase the susceptibility of these practices to climate variations. Plants are grouped photosynthetically into three groups-~.:3, C~ and `CAM' according to their biochemical ability to fix carbon. It is estimated that over 95 per cent of the world's biomass is of C3 category as also 80 per cent of the crop species. However, C4 crops are a particularly important source of food for people of the tropical region, especially the semi-arid tropics, where sorghum and millet are the principal crops. The main examples of C3 crops are wheat, rice, barley, root crops, etc., and those of C4 crops are maize, sorghum, millet and sugarcane. There is some consensus on the view that the growth response of C3 crops to increased CO~ concentration is more than that of C4 crops. The relative distribution of these crops and the possible changes in production as a result of climate change are an important aspect that needs to be studied in the context of the SAARC region. The `CA~'~1' group includes many plants in the cactus family. The species of commercial importance within this group are sisal and pineapple. CAM crops are expected to be neutral to increased CO~ concentrations. However, there may be a tendency to substitute these crops by C3 crops. FOREST RESOURCES The SAARC region is rich in forests having 18 per cent of the total area under forest in Asia, and 2 per cent of the world's. However, the average annual rate of deforestation is high ranging from 0.1 per cent in Bhutan to 2.3 per cent in India, 3.5 per cent in Sri Lanka and 4.0 per cent in Nepal. The region is 12 Fukui, 'Climate Variability and Agriculture in Tropical Moist Regions', in WMO, Proceedings of the World Climate Conference, WMO, No. 537. Geneva: WMO, 1979, pp. 426-74 113329 characterized by a range of forest types depending on the climatic zones and the annual precipitation. The forest types observed range from tropical wet evergreen in zones receiving annual rainfall higher than 2000 mm, to tropical moist deciduous in zones receiving rainfall of 1000-3000 mm, to subtropical pine and sub-alpine forests in high latitudes zones with rainfall of 1500 mm, to tropical thorn in zones of rainfall less than 400 mm. TABLE 11.11 1 Forest Area and Deforestation Rates in the Region Source: SAARC 1992, Tables 4.1 and 4.3. ENERGY CONSUMPTION The per capita consumption of commercial energy in the region, though rising, is lower than the average of 330 kgoe for the group of low income countries, much lower than the world average of 1200 kgoe, and insignificant in comparison with 5000 kgoe for the high income countries (Table 11.12). Even among the South Asian countries there are wide divergences: Nepal uses only 19 kgoe of commercial energy per capita, while the level for Pakistan is 233 kgoe. These low levels of commercial energy consumption per capita are reflective of the low levels of economic development in the region. TARI_F IL 12 Per Capita Commercial Energy Consumption Sources: Country sources; the World Bank. 114330 The small amount of commercial energy consumed per capita results in a situation where a large part of the energy needs of the populations are met through traditional sources of energy, namely, fuelwood and animal and crop wastes (Table II.13). These sources are often called non-commercial sources since they are mostly gathered, rather than exchanged in markets. Most of the traditional fuels are consumed in rural and low income urban households. With rising incomes and urbanization, the share of these traditional sources has been declining, and this trend is expected to continue in the future. Correspondingly, commercial energy consumption has been increasing at fairly rapid rates. These rates reflect to an extent the economic growth and the accompanying structural shifts that have taken place in the economy. TAR!.).. II. 13 3 Energy Consumption by Type Source: Country sources. The commercial energy intensity, defined as the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP, has risen in all the countries. This reflects growing industrialization and urbanization, and the concomitant replacement of traditional energy forms by modern forms. In comparison with the developed countries, these intensities are higher, reflecting the inefficient energy utilization and wastage (Table II. 14). TARLE 11. M Commercial Energy Intensity of GDP (1989) The consumption of electricity has grown at rates exceeding 10 per cent per annum in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan. In Sri Lanka and India, the growth rates were 6.1 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively. The major demand sectors were the household and commercial sectors. The shares of these two sectors in 115331 total electricity demand increased in all countries except Nepal, an increase that can be attributed to rising household incomes and the spread of electricity in rural areas. The share of the industrial sector went down in most countries, while the agricultural share rose. In India and Nepal, consumption in the agricultural sector grew at 13.10 per cent to 18 per cent. In Nepal, hydropower supplies almost 90 per cent of the electricity requirements, from both an interconnected system as well as from remote installations. Their current capacities are 232 MW and 16 MW respectively, which is less than 1 per cent of the economically exploitable potential of 42,000 MW. In order to exploit this immense potential, which is far in excess of present and future domestic requirements, Nepal is planning to enter into a power export arrangement with India. The progress of this arrangement has, however, been hindered by differences between the two countries on the pricing formula to be adopted. Pakistan largely relies on a mix of hydro and gas based generation in order to meet the demand for electricity. In 1980, total installed capacity was 3495 MW of which about half was gas and oil based, and about 45 per cent was hydro based. In 1990, the total capacity had increased to 7053 MW, with the gas and oil share rising to 59 per cent and the hydro share falling to 41 per cent. In addition, coal based power capacity was 15 MW, and nuclear capacity 137 MW. In terms of generation, however, the shares of oil gas and hydro were roughly equal. While in the seventies and the early eighties the use of gas was encouraged in power stations in place of oil, in recent years oil based generation has grown at nearly 13 per cent per annum, largely due to gas shortages. Owing to its flat topography, the hydropower potential of Bangladesh is only about 1500 Gwh per annum. In 1990, of the 7700 Gwh of electricity generated about 920 Gwh was from five hydro units at Kaptai (in the eastern zone) with an installed capacity of 230 MW. The eastern zone mainly has gas based capacity while in the western zone power is generated exclusively from imported fuel oil. The total oil and gas capacity stood at 2370 MW in 1990. Unlike other countries in the region, India relies mainly on coal based thermal electricity. More than 50 per cent of the coal produced in the country is used for power generation, and about 70 per cent of the installed capacity of electric utilities of 64820 MW is coal (and lignite) based (Table 11. 15). Hydro based capacity is 18440 MW, while oil and gas and nuclear based generation capacities are 5200 MW and 1565 MW respectively. Between 1980 and 1990 total installed capacity more than doubled. Whereas the thermal share increased from 58 per cent to 70 per cent, the hydro share fell from 39 per cent to 28 per cent. In terms of generation the fall in the hydro share was even more-from 42 per cent to about 27 per cent. The chief reasons for the slower development of hydropower are the long gestation periods of such plants, higher initial capital investments per MW of capacity, and interstate water disputes. 116332 TABLE 11. 15 Installed Generating Capacities in Power Utilities (1989-90) (MW) Source: Country data. HYDROLOGICAL AND COASTAL FEATURES WATER RESOURCES One important impact that climate change is expected to have through changes in precipitation, is on water resources. The impacts may be in the form of an increase or a decrease in river runoff, or in a reduced charging of underground aquifers. In the semi-arid regions, small changes in precipitation can cause considerable changes in water supply and use, because the fraction of rainwater that runs off or percolates to the groundwater is small. The impact of climatic changes on the water resources of the South Asian region can be of some political and economic significance as many rivers and sources of freshwater are shared between nations or between states within a nation. Many of these rivers are already sources of intra- and international dispute. Climate induced impacts in the form of either reduced runoff resulting in water deficits or increased runoff causing flooding downstream of the river will only aggravate existing problems. Gleick (1990) developed regional indices of water resources vulnerability for the United States using measures of demand, supply, dependence on hydroelectricity, overpumping of groundwater and hydrological variability.'3 One index that could indicate the relative vulnerabilities is the ratio of water demand in terms of withdrawal to available renewable water supply. Those countries where the present demands exceed one-third of the supply can be deemed to be vulnerable to potential shortages in the future, if water demands increase either because of increased evapotranspiration or supply falls because of reduced precipitation, or increased evapotranspiration which reduces groundwater percolation. These changes in demand are quite apart from those that may occur as a result of growing populations. Another index of vulnerability is when the annual per capita water use in countries is already greater than 1000 m3 per year. 13 P.H. Gleick, 'Environment, Resources and International Security and Politics', in F. Arnett (Ed.), Science and International Security: Responding to a Changing World. Washington, D.C. : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 1990, pp. 510-23. 117333 Table IL 16 below provides a summary of water availability and water use in countries of the South Asian region, and the dependence on hydroelectric power. It is evident that of the countries of the region, Pakistan is relatively vulnerable in terms of its water use relative to its water supply. Nepal and Sri Lanka are countries that are dependent on hydropower. Reductions in reservoir levels that result from prolonged shortfalls in precipitation could create considerable difficulties for these countries. TABLE 11.16 Water Resources: Demand and Supply Source: World Resources 1990-91, Table 22. 1. ''° Water resources include both internal and river flows from other countries. The impact of a greenhouse gas induced global warming that has the most serious potential of damage to countries of the South Asian region is sea level rise. Preliminary inventories of vulnerable countries indicate that all six coastal South Asian countries are included in the list of UNEP's 27 most vulnerable countries, with Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Maldives being in the list of the ten most vulnerable. Most of these countries have low coasts, large deltas and estuaries, and are already prone to sea erosion and/or cyclones and floods, as discussed in Chapter 1. The ecosystems which are most threatened are coral reefs, mangrove ecosystems, deltaic and estuarine ecosystems. Of the total coral reef area in the world, 24 per cent lies in the Indian Ocean; large tracts of mangrove ecosystems and some of the largest deltas in the world too are in this area. Table 11.17 below summarizes the main aspects of relevance to sea level rise vulnerability. Warrick (1991) makes three points that are very relevant to countries of the region:'4 14 Warrick, paper presented at the SEI Seminar, New Delhi, 1991. 118334 TABLE IL I7 7 Coastal Fearures of SAARC Countries of Relevance to SLR * Applicable; NA: Not Applicable. Source: Country Studies; World Resources, 1990-91, UNEP/DELFT, 1989, op. cit. 1. That the assessment of the impacts of global MSL rise at the local and regional scales has to take into account the background variations and dynamic processes involved. That is, it is important to look at the site specificities before one generalizes about the changes in coastlines on the basis of projected sea level rise. 2. That human interference in these dynamic processes can cause, and has caused, changes in the rate of local sea level rise magnitudes comparable to those projected as a result of future global warming. This human interference cannot be simply blamed for causing the problem but has to be seen in the context of the historical and economic background of the region. 3. That human adjustment to the threat of future global MSL rise can involve actions which nurture the ability of natural systems to respond so as to reduce RSL rise, or the ability of human systems to respond so as to reduce the hazards posed by RSL rise. RECOMMENDATIONS The SAARC member states are very diverse in their environmental and socio-economic conditions as seen in earlier chapters. And yet, climate change is of particular significance to these countries because of their vulnerability to its impacts. Five out of the seven countries are vulnerable to a sea level rise, with the Maldives and Bangladesh being particularly vulnerable as seen in Chapter III. Some of the predicted effects on agriculture and land use practices would call for a number of adaptive responses in these economies, so heavily dependent on agriculture. The fact that they are amongst the poorer nations of the world, with a fifth of the world's population among them, implies that adverse impacts of climate change are all the more serious because of the lack 119335 of resources to cope with the problem. The gravity of the situation is enhanced when note is taken of the fact that this region is already exposed to a number of natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, landslides, earthquakes and cyclones. In this context, there is a strong case for a pooling of whatever institutional resources and capabilities that are available regionally, and to call upon the global community for what is not available regionally. In the sections that follow, this report summarizes the views of SAARC member countries on regional and global co-operation. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION 1. Member states should share and develop scientific capabilities to understand the problem of climate change and its impacts. The following specific measures for strengthening this capability through regional co-operation have been recommended: (a) Climate monitoring capabilities of countries should be intensively improved by establishing monitoring, and improving cooperation in the field of meteorology through the proposed SAARC meteorological centre when established, or through networking arrangements as agreed among the member states. (b) A concerted effort by the scientists of the member states should be made in developing a climate change and sea level rise scenario for the region. (c) Assist those member states which do not have expertise in climate change research. (d) Training of scientists and other professionals in the relevant fields should be provided to those member states which are most in need of that type of training. (e) Strengthen and deepen cooperation among the member states in scientific assessment of climate change on the basis of the institutional strengths, research facilities and scientific capabilities of the member states. 2. Member states shall co-operate by collecting, monitoring and disseminating information on climate change and its impacts. More specifically, efforts should be made to: (a) Collect and disseminate information on climate observations and its impact on the region to member states. (b) Assist member states in monitoring GHG emissions when national capability to carry out this work is lacking. (c) Record and share meteorological and oceanographic data for the mutual benefit of the member states of the region. 120336 (d) Undertake activities as mentioned in paragraph l.(a) of the recommendations and run awareness programmes and discussion cum communication activities. 3. Member states shall exchange experiences at various policy and management levels on strategies to cope with and develop mitigating and adaptive responses to climate change and its impacts: (a) In order to stabilize the GHG emissions from the region, member states should adopt national policies for the reduction of such emissions. (b) Steps should be taken to disseminate information about new technologies appropriate to the member states in the field of alternative sources of energy, especially new and renewable sources. (c) Adaptive strategies to combat a probable sea level rise that may be experienced in the SAARC region requires special attention. A strong research programme including institutional capacity building should be developed. Sufficient number of accurate gauging stations to monitor changes in sea level should be established. Member states should exchange ideas, assessments and develop strategies and action plans to the requirements of individual countries. (d) Steps should be taken to develop, transfer and exchange technologies, human resources and expertise to face and mitigate the problems posed to agriculture, especially in dry zone farming and cropping in marginal lands. The research areas of special interest are breeding of drought resistant crops, shortening of growth periods especially of cereals, improvement in the productivity and quality of dry grains and improvement in irrigation devices. (e) The member states should explore and promote all energy saving devices and applications, and promote environmentally benign alternative energy sources to fossil fuels. In this respect, greater emphasis should be given to reforestation programmes, conservation of forests, tree planting programmes, promotion of agroforestry and enhancement of social forestry programmes. Research should be promoted and supported in increasing energy efficiency and energy conservation, all of which play a role in reducing COa emissions. (f ) The member states should develop an energy master plan with an emphasis on maximizing the use of clean energy, e.g., hydroelectricity, solar, wind, wave and geothermal enetgy. (g) Massive afforestation programmes should be launched giving priority to vulnerable areas. (h) It would also be necessary at the policy level to look into the gradual phasing out of CFCs and reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases. 121337 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR GLOBAL COOPERATION l. MONITORING CLIMATE CHANGE: It is essential to establish a global system of acquiring and maintaining data and information on numerous atmospheric, terrestrial, and ocean parameters, including the role of oceans acting as sinks for carbon dioxide and processes relevant to climate change. Developing countries should be fully involved in this effort. Such data/information should be freely available to all countries. 2. NATURAL DISASTERS: Several categories of natural disasters, including but not limited to cyclones and storm surges, are likely to become more frequent and/or more destructive as a consequence of climate change. Global action is necessary for the establishment and development of capabilities in Management Information Systems in combating such natural disasters. Adequate assistance is also necessary from the global community for special projects for disaster preparedness and management. Additionally, the global community should establish an emergency fund for tackling natural disasters linked to climate change. 3. SEA LEVEL RISE: The global community, and in particular developed countries, keeping in view their commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, "should assist SAARC member states in monitoring the effects of sea level rise at a regional level, and in establishing scenarios at more localized levels. In this, priority should be given to countries which are more vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise. Coastal protection projects in SAARC member states should be financed adequately by the global community. 4. FORESTS: Forests are important natural resources in their own right, besides comprising important sinks for carbon dioxide helping to mitigate climate change impacts, and maintaining rich biological diversity resources, which may facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for climate change impacts, in particular in agriculture. The SAARC member states call for global action for large scale afforestation and urge the early ratification and implementation of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity. 5. AWARENESS: The global community should launch concerted and effective campaigns worldwide to generate and heighten public awareness about the problem of climate change. Such increased and informed awareness will facilitate the adoption of policies for abatement and adaptation, and lead to greater direct public involvement in such efforts.. 122338 6. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERS: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change casts a clear duty on developed countries to transfer technologies bearing on adaptation and abatement strategies to developing countries. Norms for such technology transfer should be evolved in the appropriate global fora with the full participation of developing countries. These must not be restrictive and should allow for transfer of appropriate, including 'state of the art' technologies. Further, the 'full incremental costs' of abatement and adaptation strategies must be defined to include the costs of such technology transfer, without restriction on the depth to which technology is transferred. 7. TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATIONS: The global community should seriously consider the formulation of a code of conduct on technologies employed by transnational corporations in host countries, in particular with respect to the environmental dimensions of such activities. 8. FINANCES: The SAARC member states call upon the global community, and in particular the developed countries, to fulfil their commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and provide adequate new and additional funding for adaptation and abatement measures in developing countries. In particular, adequate funds must be provided to the poor and vulnerable countries in adopting protective measures as well as to facilitate the transfer to, and adoption by them, of appropriate technologies for such purposes."/>
摘要： 299 DocumentsSaarc Regional Study On Greenhouse Effect and Its Impact On the Region SAGE Publications, Inc.1994DOI: 10.1177/097152319400100208 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Regional Study...